The Bitcoin Halving Cycle Strategy: Origin, Framework, and Practical Use
The interactive chart on Bitcoin's Frontier did not appear overnight. It grew out of TradingView sketches, late-night data dives, and a hunt for a repeatable rhythm in Bitcoin's price history. This article explains how the 500 and 560 day model emerged, why halvings anchor the structure, and how to read the strategy with the mindset of a disciplined accumulator.
Prefer charting inside TradingView?Open the Bitcoin Halving Cycle Strategy on TradingView and overlay it on your favourite pairs.
From notebook scribbles to the 500 and 560 day rhythm
Everything started with one question: can we frame Bitcoin's explosive rallies and harsh corrections with a structure that keeps repeating? The halving schedule provided the clue. Every 210,000 blocks the block subsidy is cut in half, throttling fresh supply. Overlaying that mechanic on historical charts revealed a rhythm that was too consistent to ignore.
The first TradingView prototype boxed out green windows for the 500 days leading into each halving and another 560 green days after it. The empty space between them became red to show where momentum historically cooled. The sketch looked rough, yet it held together across four completed cycles.
Turning a sketch into a tool
The blueprint grew into a full TradingView strategy that drew the zones automatically, measured the performance since each bull window started, and highlighted the progress inside the cycle. The next step was obvious: ship it to the web so the data is accessible without charting software.
The web version adds quality-of-life updates. The tile "Performance Since Start of Current Cycle" updates in real time, the halving markers pinpoint the midpoint of each bull window, and the layout adapts to both phones and large monitors.
How the zones are constructed
Each halving slices the market into three phases. Roughly 500 days before the event, the market begins to price in the coming supply squeeze. Demand routinely outpaces new issuance and price tends to grind higher. That is the first green window.
The effect continues for around 560 days after the halving. Miners earn fewer coins, long term holders become more selective, and capital chases scarcity. The two windows together span roughly 1,060 days. The gap between them, about a year, forms the red zone where the market consolidates, cools off, or leaks lower.
- Pre-halving window: roughly 500 days with a bullish bias.
- Post-halving window: roughly 560 days of follow through strength.
- In between: approximately 12 months of consolidation or drawdown.
What the strategy can and cannot do
Treat the Halving Cycle Strategy as a navigation chart, not a prophecy. Green zones do not promise an all time high, red zones do not guarantee disaster. They simply visualise the tendencies that have repeated so far. Macro shocks, regulation, or exchange failures can override the cadence at any time.
Use the strategy to frame your accumulation plan: many disciplined investors build positions during the green windows and slow down when the market enters red. Pair that rhythm with on chain signals, macro work, and risk management. The approx three years bull and approx one year bear guideline is helpful, that is all it is.
Key takeaways
- Halvings are the anchor, they halve miner rewards and reshape supply.
- The 500 and 560 day windows capture the historical bull stretches around each halving.
- "Performance Since Start of Current Cycle" shows how far the current bull leg has run.
- Use the strategy as a map. Layer it with analysis, risk controls, and patience.
Prefer a quick refresher? The FAQ covers the most common questions about the strategy, refresh cadence, and colour logic.
Open the tool
Jump straight into the interactive visualisation with real-time Bitcoin market data.Open the Bitcoin Halving Indicator